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Autoliv Inc (ALV) Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

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Autoliv Inc (NYSE: ALV)
Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Jan 26, 2021, 6:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2020 Autoliv Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today.

I would now like to hand the conference to speaker today, Mr. Anders Trapp, Vice President and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

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Anders Trapp -- Vice President and Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Alicia. Welcome everyone to our fourth quarter and full year 2020 financial result earnings presentation. On this call, we have our President and CEO, Mikael Bratt; and our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin. And I'm Anders Trapp Vice President of Investor Relations.

During today's earnings call, our CEO, will provide a brief overview of our fourth quarter results as well as provide an update of our general business and market condition. Following Mikael, Fredrik will provide further details and commentary around the financials. At the end of our presentation, we will provide the status update of our journey toward our financial target. We will then remain available to respond to your questions. And as usual, the slides are available on autoliv.com.

Turning to the next slide. We have the Safe Harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference some non-US GAAP measures, the reconciliations of historical US GAAP to non-US GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly press release and the 10-K that will be filed with the SEC.

Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3:00 PM Central European Time. So please follow a limit of two questions per person.

I now hand it over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thank you, Anders. Looking now into the Q4 2020 highlights on the next slide. Before we start with the formal presentation, I would like to acknowledge our employees for their hard work and commitment to health and safety, cost control, quality and delivery position in these challenging times. The COVID-19 pandemic is first and foremost a human crisis where safeguarding health and safety is our first priority. I'm very pleased that our operations reported record net sales, record profit, and record cash flow despite the challenges from the pandemic.

We continued to execute on our strong order book and our sales increased organically by 13%, which was almost 11 percentage points more than the increase of global light vehicle production. The record operating income was a result of high sales growth, good operational execution, structural savings and the forceful actions we initiated early in 2020.

Our structural efficiency programs are on track and delivering savings. As part of our footprint optimization, we have announced the plans to close one plant in Sweden and we continue to evaluate further footprint optimization. It is encouraging that we can report the highest operating and free cash flow in our history of our company. These enabled delivering toward our leverage ratio target of 0.5 times to 1.5 times. We continue to evaluate opportunities for shareholder value creation.

The order intake share of around 45% in 2020 supports a prolonged period of outgrowth. And by that defending our growing market share. Customer sourcing activities was lower than expected as sourcing of some programs were pushed into 2021. Our focus throughout this crisis has been the health and safety of our employees and to come out of it as a stronger company.

Although the COVID-19 pandemic is not yet behind us, The second half year performance shows that we have built a solid platform toward our mid-term target. However, disruption in the automotive industry supply chain, economic uncertainty, risk for further lockdowns and the risk of increasing unemployment and its impact on consumer demand may tamper the 2021 light vehicle production development.

Looking now on the financial highlights on the next slide. Our consolidated net sales increased by 50% compared to Q4 2019. This was the highest quarter sales for our passive safety business ever. As we outpaced the market, our global market share increased to 42% with leading market share across all three core product areas, airbags, seatbelts and steering wheels.

Adjusted operating income including cost for capacity alignment and -- excluding cost for capacity alignment and antitrust related matters increased by around 30% to $311 million. The adjusted operating margin increased by 130 basis points to 12.4%. Despite significant accruals for warranty and recalls. The accruals include a higher than anticipated accrual for [Indecipherable] previous recall first announced in 2016 and other probable recall that is still under evaluation by the company and its customers. This is the first time we have made an accrual of this size, and it does not reflect Autoliv's high-quality standards and culture. Operating cash flow of $469 million was the highest cash flow on record for the company.

Looking now on sales development on the next slide. I'm very pleased that our organic sales growth outperformed the global light vehicle production by 11 percentage points. We had a solid sales development in all the major regions, with sales in Europe, China and North America, outperforming light vehicle production by 9 percentage point to 12 percentage point. The outperformance was a result of product launches over the past year and a favorable model mix. In the quarter slowing sales of replacement inflators had a 0.7 percentage points negative effect on sales, mainly affecting North America and China.

Looking on the next slide. We had several high content model launches during the quarter. We did not experience any major delays of launches. The models shown on this slide have an Autoliv content per vehicle between $110 to $540. Two of the vehicles are pure EVs and many of the remaining model -- remaining models will be available with some sort of electrified powertrain. The long-term trend to higher CPV is supported by the introduction of pedestrian airbag and hood lifter. For example, Subaru Levorg is the first Japanese produced vehicle with a pedestrian airbag from Autoliv.

Looking now on the next slide. Our order intake share for the full year continued on a high level, supporting our growth opportunities also beyond 2021. This is strong evidence that our company is the leading company in the passive safety automotive industry. And it shows that we have managed well while launching previous years high order intake. One of our key performance indicators, customer satisfaction has continued to improve and is at the high level, the best we have had for several years.

However, this does not mean that we can relax. We always strive for improving product -- products, services, processes and costs. We estimate that we booked around 45% of available order value in 2020, making 2020 the sixth consecutive year with higher order intake.

Now, I will hand over to our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin, who will talk more about the financials on the next few slides.

Fredrik Westin -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Mikael. So the next slide, we show all the highlights and key figures for the fourth quarter. Our net sales were $2.5 billion, a 15% increase compared to the same quarter last year. Gross profit increased by $75 million and the gross margin increased by 40 basis points. The higher gross margin was primarily driven by the higher sales and direct material efficiency, partially offset for cost related to warranty and recall accruals.

The adjusted operating income increased by $69 million to $311 million, mainly due to the higher gross profit. The operating cash flow was $469 million, the highest record quarterly operating cash flow for the company. Reported earnings per share was $2.15 and our adjusted return on capital employed was 33% and return on equity was also 33%. We did not pay a dividend in the quarter.

Looking now on the adjusted operating margin bridge on the next slide. Our adjusted operating margin of 12.4% was 130 basis points higher than in the fourth quarter 2019. As illustrated by the chart, the adjusted operating margin was positively impacted by lower cost for raw materials of 50 basis points and lower combined cost for SG&A and RD&E of 70 basis points, mainly due to lower cost for personnel in relation to sales.

FX effects impacted the operating margin positively by 50 basis points. This is caused by transactional effects from a number of different currency pairs. Operational improvements contributed with 180 basis points. This was a result of strict cost discipline put in place during the first half of the year and the effects from our structural efficiency programs, partly offset by the negative impact of COVID-19 related costs and inefficiencies.

Support from government in connection with the pandemic was around $2 million in the quarter. The margin was also affected by the accruals for warranty and recalls of 220 basis points. This is the first time in the history of our company that we have such high amount of this type of costs. Since 2010 we have accounted for less than 2% of all safety related recalls despite our high market share. Having said that, the automotive insurance market has become more challenging with increased insurance premiums and self risks, which could lead to higher average cost for recalls.

Looking on the next slide. For the fourth quarter of 2020, operating cash flow was $469 million, an increase of $157 million compared to last year. The increase in operating cash flow was a result of the higher net income, effects from deferred income taxes and improved working capital. Strict inventory control, our close collaboration with suppliers, but also reduced overdues and improved payables together with positive effects from other non-cash items who are the main drivers for the improvement in working capital.

Capital expenditures amounted to $111 million in the quarter, which is about 4.4% in relation to sales. Compared to last year, capital expenditures decreased by 6%. Free cash flow was $358 million, an increase of $164 million year-over-year. For the full year 2020, operating cash flow was almost $850 million and free cash flow amounted to $0.5 billion. Capex was $340 million for the full year, a reduction by close to 30% compared to 2019 as we suspended or delayed some investments. A more normalized market will lead to some increase in investments again. The cash conversion in 2020 was more than 200% as a result of the low capex, positive operating working capital development and non-cash items.

Now looking on the next slide. We have, as you know, a long history of a prudent financial policy and our balance sheet focus remains unchanged. The leverage ratio has improved from a peak of 2.9 times at the end of the second quarter to 1.8 times as of December 31st, 2020. The improved leverage in the quarter was a result of our net debt decreasing by $350 million, while EBITDA over the last 12 months at the same time increased by $75 million. It is worth noting that our net debt is now $0.5 billion lower than when we spun-off Veoneer in 2018. Our strong free cash flow generation should allow further deleveraging and we expect to be within our target leverage ratio range before the end of 2021.

On the next slide, you can see our key figures for the full year 2020. 2020 was a turbulent year with a low point in the second quarter and the high point in the fourth quarter. Our net sales were $7.4 billion with sales declining organically by 12%. This was slightly better than our guidance of a 13% decline with global LVP declining 17%, our outperformance was approximately 5 percentage points. The adjusted operating margin was 6.5% compared to our guidance of around 6%. A dividend of $0.62 was paid in the first quarter.

Looking now on the light vehicle market on the next slide, we see risk for near-term volatility to light vehicle production from supply chain challenges, low labor availability and continued challenges around COVID-19 mitigation efforts. Although we are not directly affected by the semiconductor supply issues, it will potentially have substantial impact on light vehicle production in the first half of 2021.

According to IHS Markit, more than 600,000 unit impact is highly likely with most of that loss production expected to be recovered in the second half of the year. Largest impact is expected in China, followed by Europe and Japan. In North America, we expect that rebuilding inventory will push light vehicle production gains above light vehicle sales increases in 2021. In Europe, the overall production outlook remains constructive given the need to rebuild inventories and support the ongoing domestic sales recovery and increased export activity. In China, positive economic fundamentals are supporting the ongoing recovery in consumer demand. Light vehicle production is now forecasted to grow at 7% for 2021 after three consecutive years of decline. Our full year guidance is based on our customer call-offs and light vehicle production outlook according to IHS Markit.

On the next slide, you see some of the key models supporting our expected sales out-performance in 2021. These models are expected to account for a large share of our organic sales growth during the year. Nine of these models were launched recently, three are yet to be launched. Our content per vehicle on these 12 models is in the range of $150 to $600. Additionally, we continue to see a high number of product launches in 2021, especially in China, Europe and North America.

Looking to our expected margin development for 2021 on the next slide. We see some tailwinds and some headwinds. The main tailwinds include the rebound of global light vehicle production, executing on the strong order book and savings from the structural efficiency programs. The main headwinds include operational headwinds from higher cost for raw material of approximately 40 basis points, a gradual normalization of discretionary spending and higher depreciation and amortization. Considering these potential tailwinds and headwinds, we expect the year-over-year improvement in adjusted operating margin of around 350 basis points. However, supply chain disruption in the automotive industry, risk for further lockdowns and the potential increase in unemployment and its effect on consumer demand may still impact this outlook.

I now hand back to Mikael.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thank you, Fredrik. Now looking on the full year 2021 indications on the next slide. These indications exclude cost for capacity alignments and antitrust related matters. Backed by recent product launches, we expect sales to increase organically by around 20%, supporting a full-year mid single-digit outperformance versus light vehicle production. Our net sales increase is assumed to be around 25%, including positive currency translation effects of around 5%. We expect an adjusted operating margin of around 10%. Operating cash flow is expected to be in line with 2020. It is important to note that the outlook assumes that light vehicle production develops broadly in line with IHS Markit's latest forecast.

Turning the page. During the first half of 2020, we experienced a downturn of historical proportions. Despite these, our focus areas for shareholder value creation are unchanged and we have continued to execute on the strategic initiatives presented at our Capital Markets Day in 2019. [Indecipherable] is to ensure we have an adequate cost structure supporting our mid-term target.

Today, I would like to share some updates of our journey with you. But first, I would like to say a few words about how we integrate environment, social and governance into our strategy on the next slide. Our core business contributes to the United Nations' sustainable development goal for health and well-being. We support the UN Global Compact and its 10 principles are an integral part of our sustainability commitment, strategy and work. We are well-positioned to support the industry transformation toward cleaner vehicles.

Our commitment and strategic priorities include innovating products to save more lives in real-life traffic. At the same time, we focus on improving resource efficiency and reducing our carbon footprint, managing sustainability risks in our value chain, committing to the well-being of our employees and acting in the best interest of society as a whole. During 2021, we will especially advance our position on the climate issue and update our climate strategy.

Now looking on the next slide. Here we have our financial targets as presented at our CMD in 2019. During 2020 we delivered on the growth and cash conversion target. In 2021, we expect to continue to build toward our profitability target of around 12% adjusted operating margin.

Looking on the building blocks for profitability growth on the next slide. Improvement in margins will come from three key levers; executing on the strong order book, stabilization of market fundamentals and our strategic initiatives. Looking more on our three key levers and an update on our targets on the next few slides.

For reference, our sales outperformed the global light vehicle production organically by 5 percentage points in 2020. We expect that content per vehicle will grow by at least 1% per year as a result of higher installation rate and introduction of new products. These combined with a sustained higher order intake level allows us to increase our medium-term target for annual growth of 4% to 5% above light vehicle production on average. This is an increase by 1 percentage point.

Looking on the market development on the next slide. The outlook for global light vehicle production looks very different today than back in 2019. IHS expectation for global light vehicle production has been reduced by roughly 7 million units per year or approximately 40 million vehicles totally 2020 to 2024. This reduced light vehicle production environment creates additional challenges.

Looking on the next slide. To offset the effects from the expected lower light vehicle production, we expanded the Structural Efficiency Programs. We have seen expected positive effects. The savings from our two Structural Efficiency Program was around $55 million in 2020 compared to 2019. In addition to the Structural Efficiency Programs, we made a provision of around $35 million in 2020 for footprint optimization in Europe, involving plant closures in Germany and Sweden. We are also targeting to make some of the temporary cost reductions that supported a strong performance in the second half of 2020 permanent. Despite the pandemic, we have stayed true to our commitment and focused on driving improvements for our key areas within operations, supply chain management and engineering.

Looking at the progress on the next few slides. We have increased our optimization activity more than 5 times in the last 12 months from around 50 projects at the end of 2019 to more than 250 projects. Implementation is at full speed. For example, we have developed a fully automated line for weaving our curtain airbags. The first line is being taken into production in the first quarter of 2021. Our digitalization journey has also been accelerated with more validated use cases. Our improvement in Autoliv Production System has shown great momentum, 80% of our plants have now reached gold level or above. During the last 12 months 50 of our 65 plants have moved up one level or more. Today, we have no plans on basic or bronze level.

Looking on supply chain management on the next slide. Despite the challenging year for automotive suppliers, we managed to achieve a year-on-year cost reduction of more than 4% for components, material and logistics, including 90 basis points from raw material price changes. This level of saving is clearly supporting our mid-term target. Expanded payment terms is another focus area contributing to a strong working capital improvement. The potential risk in the supply chain increased during 2020. We have taken a proactive approach and recognized supply chain risk management as a key part of our capabilities.

Looking on engineering progress on the next slide. In our ambition to reduce RD&E in relation to sales to historical levels of around 4% of sales and to support our optimization journey, we are transforming the way we are doing engineering. These transformation includes smart connection of systems, data, processes and tools. Faster implementation on improvement projects, developing specific simulation tools for substantial reduction of prototypes and testing. During 2020, we have implemented 12 such improvement projects and we are currently driving 40 more projects. In addition, we have more than 50 projects in the pipeline. I hope this presentation has shown you that we have a very high pace in the implementation of our strategic initiatives and that we are on track toward our mid-term target.

Now looking on focus for 2021 on the next slide. The health and safety of our employees is our first priority, while continuing more activities to further improve efficiency. We will also continue our efforts of flawless execution of new launches, improving customer satisfaction further and thereby supporting our new and stronger market position. Sadly, there will be millions of traffic accidents in 2021, some fatal, some where people will get injured. Therefore we will relentlessly continue to innovate and to deliver best quality products that will save more lives.

Turning the page. We plan to hold our next Capital Markets Day in the fourth quarter where we will showcase our full potential and provide an update on our strategy and development of the Autoliv Group. Additionally, we plan to show further the future products, giving an update on opportunities in core and adjacent product areas, outline further potentials that we see in flexible automization and digitalization and much more.

I will now hand back to Anders.

Anders Trapp -- Vice President and Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Mikael. Turning the page. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call. And we would like to open the line for questions.

I now turn it back to you, Alicia.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank. Please ask your question. Your line is open.

Emmanuel Rosner -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Hey, [Indecipherable] Emmanual. So two questions. First on the [Indecipherable], could you go over kind of the impact going forward at current spot rate then, if I remember correctly, there is usually a lag. So it sounds like it could be 40 bps this year. Any sense of how much that might be next year? And then second question on the order intake, so it's been about 50% the past five years, could you maybe go over why that's kind of dropped down to 45% in 2020? Thanks.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thank you for your questions there. I can start with the order intake then maybe and then pass on raw material to Fredrik then to give you some more details there. I think, firstly, I think it's still a very strong year when it comes to our order intake. I mean, we have an order intake for 2020 that will continue to support our outgrowth of the market. We have said all along here that we have expected market share growth into the mid 40s or around 45. And that is our focus to protect that market share as we move forward in the coming years, year-end. With the order intake that is higher than we had before the increased period here. So as I said, six years of strong order intake is doing exactly that. So we are pleased with order intake and support the strategic outlook we have had when it comes to defending our market share.

Fredrik Westin -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

On the raw materials side, so we're guiding for a 40 basis point impact on the 2029 financials. The main negative impact we see is from steel. But we do expect some offsetting effects from, for example, nylon still in 2021. And we also base this estimate on the assumption that steel spot prices have peaked and that the average steel price would be somewhat lower for the year compared to right now. And then, of course, it also takes into account how our contracts are faced and how, given the spot prices will turn into an impact based on our setup with our supply base. So that's pretty much the picture on raw material.

Emmanuel Rosner -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

All right. Great. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris McNally from Evercore. Please ask your question. Your line is open.

Chris McNally -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Great. Thank you so much. A follow on maybe to the market share. A question, could you maybe talk about how your sales force and division had or sort of incentivize this idea of basically going after revenue versus going after profitable higher margin business. Can you just talk a little bit about how that incentive structure works, because I guess people are trying to understand if there is business to be won above that 45% market share target. Is that something that they're incentivized to go after?

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

I think, I mean first of all, I mean we always strive to get as much business as possible, of course, to support our customers and doing that at a -- in a healthy way here. So, I mean, we are focusing on both here, top-line and bottom-line. And I think that is what we have alluded to also when we have talked about our ambitions to continue to grow here. I mean, if it's 45 or 50, some questions have been here in the past, considering the last year's order intake. I mean, we have been carried that we don't have a market share target per se. Our focus is to defend the market share that we are growing into and do that in a healthy way from a profitability point of view.

And I think we are showing that we are doing that. And that's also how we drive the company here, and we are focusing here on supporting our customers here to have quality products to saving more lives. That's our focus.

Chris McNally -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

That's great. And then the second question is really more on the long-term target, which you seem to be reiterating of this 13% margin. And I think it was mentioned even this 1% sort of organic content per vehicle growth above market share. And it sounds like we're going to learn a lot more on the CMD in Q4. But do you feel pretty confident that there is a passive safety tech story where there is actually content that could be grown and obviously China is still coming up in terms of a lower CPV per vehicle. But do you feel confident that there is a growth story here well-passed when you hit sort of your eventual market share gains, because, obviously, the numbers get pretty big if we start putting on growth to the market and a 13% margin in whatever year that is 2025, etc.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yeah. I think, I mean, confident, I will say, we are making this adjustment based on the best of our knowledge, when we look and analyze the numbers that we have in front of us here. And as we said here, I mean, we see that the content per vehicle are coming in higher with both the development you see in some developing countries where the content per se in terms of features increasing, but also the more advanced products coming into the vehicles across the board I would say. So hence then the higher value in the CPV coming through above the 1% that we are talking about here. So that is what we see. And then combine then with a strong order book that we have and continue to build on also with this year's order intake, we feel that we can raise the bar with our performance here versus light vehicle production with one percentage unit. So yes, that's what we see.

Chris McNally -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Okay. Much thanks. Great results.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thank you.

Fredrik Westin -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak from RBC Capital Markets. Please ask your question. Your line is open.

Joseph Spak -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Thank you very much. Maybe just to follow on and to clarify like what the -- you previously sort of talked about hitting that 12% margin target later in the planning period because of the change in industry volumes, which is understandable. But now, since you've taken a lot of cost action to right size for that volume and the [Indecipherable] were little bit stronger. So has the timing of those margin target shifted at all? Or can we go back to sort of the original planning or is it still maybe a little bit later in the planning period?

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

I think, I mean, as we have said all along here is that, I mean, we had a mid-term target that's defined three years to five years out from where we were at our year one 2020. And of course, as we have shown here in the presentation, there is for sure additional headwind compared to where we were in November 2019. And I mean, roughly 40 million vehicles lower in this period here seems to be not being there. And so, on top of that uncertainty here with and the circumstances to operate the business under COVID-19 together with uncertainty coming out of that definitely have put some more pressure on it. Then as we have said all along, we are holding on to the targets, but of course, within that timeframe, it could take a little bit longer time than expected. So I mean, we are still in the time-frame we are talking about and we have always been within that time-frame. We have not said anything else.

Joseph Spak -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Thank you. And then just for some of the '21 guidance, I guess there is two things. One, you noted in the fourth quarter, you mentioned a couple of times on the higher insurance, it sounds like that's more recent. Is that also a continued headwind into '21? I didn't see it on your seesaw chart. And then, for the first quarter production you noted IHS at 14%. Maybe you could just talk about what you are seeing from your customer call-offs in light of some of the semi shortage, etc. Whether you think it's going to be at that level or maybe a little bit below?

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

If I start with the first one here about the outlook here for light vehicle production. As we have indicated here, I mean, we are leaning on the IHS outlook here. And I mean, when we look at that we see here that, I mean, we have compared to the second half of 2020, when you transform that into full year of 2021, you see actually slightly weaker 2021 compared to the second half of this year over around 4% -- 4 percentage there. And I think when you look at that, of course with the start of the year here when we have the COVID, we have also the semiconductor challenge as we've mentioned here. There is for sure some uncertainty in the beginning of the year, which we are cautious of. But I would say, looking at the full number here, we have no other indications or views on what we see here on the total number for 2021. Hence then, our guide -- indication here that we have for the 2021. So -- but we are very much aware that we are still in the COVID situation here.

Fredrik Westin -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

And to your question regarding -- regarding insurance. As that's related to the cost of insurance, that, yeah -- it's been an evolving picture over the last couple of years already. But we don't expect any significant headwinds from that -- from the cost of insurance for 2021 versus 2020, that would make it to the, say, our seesaw scale here.

Joseph Spak -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Victoria Greer from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question.

Victoria Greer -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Hi, there. Afternoon, good morning, everyone. And I wanted to ask about dividends and cash returns please and how you'd be thinking about those. And you haven't proposed dividend for Q4. When do you think is the right level to think about reinstating the dividend? And when you do that, do you think that roughly the sort of split that you've had in the past of around $2.50 a share or about $200 million a year. And then anything incremental to that comes as a buyback, is that still the right structure that we should be thinking about as you get into your target range? So, yes, some commentary around that please would be helpful.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thank you. First of all, I mean, we normally don't communicate dividends in connection with our quarters because, as you know we have quarterly dividend that is taken by the Board on a quarterly basis. So not connected to Q report. Secondly, I think, maybe it's too early to post that question. I think we are still in the uncertain period here and we are still outside the range. But with that said, I also want to reiterate here that our clear ambition and target here is to have a shareholder-friendly approach to how we return cash to our shareholders.

Timing and also in which way and form we will do that, that we have to come back to. I mean, as I said, it's a decision to be made by the Board eventually. But we need to get into more stable territory in terms of the business cycle before we are there.

Victoria Greer -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Okay. So you think the relative market uncertainty is still too high for that to be a realistic discussion right now.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yeah, I think that's correct. The business cycle is too uncertain and also we still have some way to go until we are within our range. But we have said also that we have a pragmatic view, so we don't need to be within the range, but we need to see that we have a good track through there and more stable business cycle.

Victoria Greer -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

All right. Thanks very much.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Mattias Holmberg of DNB. Please ask your question. Your line is open.

Mattias Holmberg -- DNB Markets -- Analyst

Hi, Thank you. Mattias Holmberg from DNB here. You made some comments on a slight headwind in the quarter from lower sales of inflator replacement. And I believe that you about a year ago said that, more or less the last of the cost of replacement will be made during 2020 and that we should expect a slight headwind that we've now seen. And can you just briefly update us on the status of these replacements. I noticed for instance, Ford just a couple of days ago announced a pretty significant recall still relating to the inflators.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yeah, I think, I mean, we are still where we are and I have communicated before we see diminishing sales connected to that replacement. And when it comes to what you saw the latest there, I don't see that we have any upside coming from that to us here. So I would say that, that diminishing trend continues here. So no change to the previous statement basically.

Mattias Holmberg -- DNB Markets -- Analyst

Great. And could you give us an idea of how much of 2020 sales roughly was relating to the replacement?

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Was your question about the decline or how much sales did we have to replacement?

Mattias Holmberg -- DNB Markets -- Analyst

How much of 2020 sales was relating to the replacement?

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

It's around $55 million of sales in 2020. And probably half of that in 2021, so it continuing to diminish there.

Mattias Holmberg -- DNB Markets -- Analyst

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman from JP Morgan. Please ask your question.

Ryan Brinkman -- JP Morgan -- Analyst

Great, thank you. I appreciate your comments on the dividend too. Maybe just another capital allocation question, as you return this year to your targeted leverage range. How should we think about the level of gross cash that you hold, which I think is still toward the high end of what you've had on the balance sheet historically, at least since the time of the Veoneer spin. And then what is the first debt to be paid down? I don't know, some of the sovereign debt you've taken on there, if that needs to be prioritized, how should -- and how should we think about debt pay down versus other uses of capital?

Fredrik Westin -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. We still have a fairly comfortable cash position. And if you look, I mean, historically we've been in more stable times we've been at about half of the cash that we would have today on the balance sheet. But as we said before, I mean, we still believe that there are some level of risks in the market. And that it is prudent to maintain a slightly higher cash position at this point of time. But as that would normalize or it has -- or if it would normalize, we can then build down that cash position here. We have very few maturities coming up here both this year and next year, the most or the next larger one is the repayment of the EKN -- SEK, sorry, loan that we took up earlier during 2020, that's the first major majority and that's next year.

Ryan Brinkman -- JP Morgan -- Analyst

Okay. Great. Thanks. Just last question on things that you might contemplate doing in the future apart from passive safety. So for example, this battery disconnects, which I don't know if you've got any update there. And if that means that you see opportunities in addressable markets beyond airbags, seatbelts, etc?

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yeah. I think, when it comes to the electrical vehicles, for example, this power safety switch is a component that we are selling and where we see opportunities to further grow and whatever you need to have a power safety switch. So it's good opportunities there. And we continue to explore what we have called adjacent -- are calling adjacent business opportunities where we are building on our core competencies here. But right now, I have no more details to give you around that more than that we have work in progress there, and we will come back to you when we have more to say there.

Ryan Brinkman -- JP Morgan -- Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho. Please ask your question. Your line is open.

Vijay Rakesh -- Mizuho -- Analyst

Hi. Hi Mikael and Fredrik, just on the order intake, I was wondering, you highlighted EVs, do you see any difference in content between ICE and EV, anything structurally there or kind of similar?

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

I think when it comes to electrical vehicles, it's neutral to positive in terms of sales value from our side here. And I mean, we have a good presence in the EV segment here and reflects very much our overall market position here. So it's interesting and good development from our perspective to see the development there.

Vijay Rakesh -- Mizuho -- Analyst

Got it. And on the LVP and demand outlook, just wondering if you drill down, as you look at the dealership levels, where do you see dealership inventories in North America versus China versus Europe etc? Thanks.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

I think overall the inventory situation is good I would say. If you look at the US, actually the inventory levels is relatively low, I mean, we are around 48 days, which is to be compared with 60 days, I would say, some kind of normalized inventory levels. So there is still some backfill needed there. In China, it's very much in balance, I would say, and also Europe maybe on the high side in terms of balance definition. But overall in healthy positions, I would say. So nothing there that I would say is a concern with US then maybe the opposite actually.

Vijay Rakesh -- Mizuho -- Analyst

Got it. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sascha Gommel from Jefferies. Please ask your question.

Sascha Gommel -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Yes, good afternoon, good morning. I have a couple of questions. The first question is in your introductory remarks you said, you continue to evaluate measures for shareholder value generation. Was that basically related to your capital allocation? Or how should I interpret that statement?

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

I would say it's all of above. I think, I mean, yes, when it comes to, as I said before, be a shareholder friendly company returning cash to our shareholders over time. But then also our focus to drive toward our mid-term targets. And here we have then all those strategic roadmaps that we have talked about. So it's what we do here.

Sascha Gommel -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Okay. So nothing specific in terms of further measures you could highlight today that haven't been kind of discussed in the past.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

No, not more on detail level here. I mean, it is really connected to our improvement on our earnings capabilities and then cash return.

Sascha Gommel -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Okay, perfect. And then I've just two very quick model questions. The first one, the warranty provisions you booked. When do you expect that to be cash effective, is that kind of a $50 million cash out this year or is it dragged over longer periods?

Fredrik Westin -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

So, there are two components we got there, Toyota part, which is one larger part of the $55 million. Their expectations is that, that would be settled within this year. On the other part, it's more uncertain to say in terms of timing here. That's as much as I can say at this point of time.

Sascha Gommel -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Okay, perfect. And then very lastly on the D&A headwind. Do you have a rough number? How much you expect D&A to be a headwind in '21?

Fredrik Westin -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I think if you look at the year-over-year development in Q4 2020 versus '19, I think that gives you some indication by quarter than for next year.

Sascha Gommel -- Jefferies -- Analyst

That's great. Thank you very much for the clarity.

Fredrik Westin -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson from Barclays. Please ask your question.

Brian Johnson -- Barclays -- Analyst

Hi, thank you. In relation to the quest for new business and that 45%, 50% share that was discussed earlier, how would you characterize the pricing environment in the asset safety business? I've always been struck by the enormous cost that competitive products are listing upon their OEMs with the kind of ongoing cost-cutting and price reductions, OEM seems to push at least historically pushed for in the passive safety business. With this massive recall activity, which keeps going on, mostly it's moving forward. Now has there been any change in procurement attitudes toward price?

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

No, I think, I mean, to say here, I mean it's very competitive industry. And there is a 2% to 4% price reduction expectations on year-over-year here. No changes to order playing out. So hence we confirm there, that it's the same. So, no changes.

Brian Johnson -- Barclays -- Analyst

Okay. And then secondly, just in terms of, sort of similar to the D&A question. Yes, with all the new business coming in, how could we -- should we think about modeling our D&A both their lumpiness in the quarters in '21 as well as should we thinking about 4.5% of the mid-term run rate?

Fredrik Westin -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, as we indicated in the guidance, we expect below 5% on the RD&E, we're around 4.5%. And I think that's the -- we will of course see that the top-line benefit from that. And then our ambition is to have the efficiency improvements on the gross engineering costs that we already show or that we showed there also on the ongoing activities. And then we also have factored in there our assumptions on the engineering recoveries, which is always a bit -- there is always a bit more uncertainty around that. But 4.5% is what we're guiding for.

And then over time, that this will -- and then over time that this will then come down to below 4% as we indicated as the cost become more efficient with a further top-line growth there.

Brian Johnson -- Barclays -- Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Erik Golrang from SEB. Please ask your question.

Erik Golrang -- SEB -- Analyst

Thank you. I have two questions and they are follow-ups. Firstly on the expected cost development in 2021, you said you didn't expect anything additional in terms of recall-related cost, but does that assume that you have assumed that they are in a similar level as in 2020, i.e, around $55 million?

And then, related to order intake, was there a regional mix factor explaining perhaps the lower share i.e that you would be a bit more sort of awards given in China versus the Western world? And then also if you could comment on your share in sales -- market share in sales for 2020. Thanks.

Fredrik Westin -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, so on the recall costs, we do not -- well, at this point of time, the provisions that we booked in the fourth quarter is what we see as the current risk on recalls and -- sorry 2020. And so, and that is what we see at the moment, yes, of course, we cannot rule out any further potential actions. But the forecast is not based on any significant recall costs to the same -- in the same magnitude.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yes. And on share in sales, as we said here, we had 42% market share of sales in 2020. So it's 1 percentage points higher than what it was in 2019. So the market share growth then continued as we deliver on the order book here? And when it comes to the order intake, I wouldn't say that there is anything that sticks out into that. I think we had a fairly even distribution in terms of how we continue to build on our different positions in the different regions here. So no dramatic change in the balance there.

Erik Golrang -- SEB -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Hampus Engellau from Handelsbanken. Please ask your question. Your line is open.

Hampus Engellau -- Handelsbanken -- Analyst

Thank you very much. I am sorry to come back on the order intake. You've been reporting [Indecipherable] for so long. So I guess, you guys are starting to get used to that. But is -- I know for some time that, we've been discussing pricing versus market share etc. And I'm sure you don't have the market share goal as you highlighted. But are you starting to see some rising competition, which means that you are more reluctant and focusing mainly the slightly more on profitability. Is that something that has impacted your market share? That's my first question.

Then second question is, is on the raised or out-performance on organic growth, 4% to 5% instead of 3% to 4%. I guess my question is that this is based on your backlog and you had your backlog some time. And it's more than, you know, how much you specified on that model. So how has that kind of changed going forward. Is there a mix issue or have you been given additional business on existing contracts that you have had in your backlog or how should we think about that? Those are my two questions.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

I think first on the order intake here, I think as we said, before here we are focusing on doing both. I mean, driving growth and doing that in a healthy and effective way when it comes to the bottom-line here. As we have said all along, 50% is not the target, but it is to defend our market share. And we believe we are doing that. And then of course, this year we came in around 45% and this is an isolated year also. So how you come out in a year also depends a little bit on how does your different customer base renewing their programs and how is your incumbency looking at that particular year etc, etc, so it's many different components. And I think when you look at single year updates, and you're coming around 45%, I think it's a very strong year and supports our long-term direction here. And as we have listed also the outperformance, I think that's a very good indication that, that theory holds so to speak, because it comes then from how our order we will have been built and are being built as we move forward on the, depending on each platform that you are on, and we see then how the content increasing on top of that. So the combination makes us comfortable to adjust that target to 1 percentage point higher.

Hampus Engellau -- Handelsbanken -- Analyst

All right. Thank you.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our last question comes from the line of Agnieszka Vilela from Nordea. Please ask your question. Your line is open.

Agnieszka Vilela -- Nordea -- Analyst

Thank you. Could you help us with the EBIT bridge for 2021 and especially touch upon the savings components? So it would be helpful if you could quantify the kind of short-term savings that you had in 2020, you said that probably some of those will turn permanent. So, what's kind of delta that you expect for 2021? And also on the permanent cost saving side, you -- obviously you're running your projects there, but you also say that you could have some scope for further improvement when it comes to the footprint. So, could you please elaborate on that and whether you included that in your margin outlook for 2021? Thanks.

Fredrik Westin -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, on the outlook, if you -- if you look at the contribution of the Structural Efficiency Programs, so that the first one that was started in 2019 will have its last contribution in a year-over-year effect of around $10 million. And then we expect around $40 million from the second program that we initiated last year. So overall a $50 million impact from that. When you look at the footprint, this will take longer time, we're talking about time periods of '23, '24 when they will be finalized, so there will not be any contribution from them in the '21 EBIT [Indecipherable].

And then we have not disclosed the savings from discretionary spending and it's a bit difficult to forecast how exactly they will phase-in mostly here during 2021. At the moment, they are pretty much running at the same run-rate as they were in the third and fourth quarter. But our assumption was that they would normalize it here. But that's also of course connected to how the pandemic evolves and how quickly we go back to a more normal way of working. So it's a bit, yeah, we've not disclosed the exact amount, but there will be say some normalization of those that discretionary spending during '21 is our assumption.

Agnieszka Vilela -- Nordea -- Analyst

Okay, perfect. And then just lastly, what kind of operational leverage do you assume for the full year?

Fredrik Westin -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I think you can calculate yourself from the guidance, I mean, you have the top line, you have the adjusted operating margin, and from that, you can -- you can look at what the leverage will be here.

Agnieszka Vilela -- Nordea -- Analyst

Yeah. All right. And then just the very last one, on the recalls, are you sure that we will not see any kind of spreading impact from that with further products being recalled. What do you think about that?

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yeah, I think, I mean, you need to look at this quarter, that's a very exceptional quarter in terms of recall cost, as we have indicated, we have booked it before. And this is an old, I mean, old situation and combine then with another case here that comes up in the same quarter here. And this is not a new level you should expect with our focus on driving quality has been high always. And we have also history of around 2% of the recall share, considering then our total market share. So I think that's a performance that we intend to continue to secure as we move forward here.

Fredrik Westin -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I mean, one comment is also that, the recalls are not related to each other.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yes.

Fredrik Westin -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

It's not a systemic issue or anything. They are just two recalls where we have to book the charges here in the same quarter based on the recent developments.

Hampus Engellau -- Handelsbanken -- Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We have no further question at this time. Please go ahead.

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thank you, Alicia. Before we end today's call, I would like to say that we are operating from a position of strength in many aspects, including market position, growth and dedicated employees. We will continue to improve efficiency and continue to implement our strategic road-map to support 2021 being a solid stepping stone on the journey to our 2022, 2024 targets. Our first quarter earnings call is scheduled for Friday, April 23, 2021. Thank you everyone for participating in today's call. We sincerely appreciate your continued interest in Autoliv. Until next time, stay safe.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Duration: 64 minutes

Call participants:

Anders Trapp -- Vice President and Head of Investor Relations

Mikael Bratt -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Fredrik Westin -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Emmanuel Rosner -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Chris McNally -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Joseph Spak -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Victoria Greer -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Mattias Holmberg -- DNB Markets -- Analyst

Ryan Brinkman -- JP Morgan -- Analyst

Vijay Rakesh -- Mizuho -- Analyst

Sascha Gommel -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Brian Johnson -- Barclays -- Analyst

Erik Golrang -- SEB -- Analyst

Hampus Engellau -- Handelsbanken -- Analyst

Agnieszka Vilela -- Nordea -- Analyst

More ALV analysis

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