What happened Shares of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: BCRX) up 10.8% to around $4.76 Friday as of 3:30 p.m. EDT. The big gain came after JMP Securities analyst Jonathan Wolleben bumped his price target for the stock up to $11 from $10. So what It's typically best to take analysts' price targets for stocks with a grain of salt. However, understanding the rationales behind their perspectives can be helpful in evaluating the prospects for a company. Image source: Getty Images. In this case, Wolleben is expecting that BioCryst's hereditary angioedema drug berotralstat will win a thumbs-up from the FDA. The agency is scheduled to announce its decision on the drug by Dec. 3. Wolleben estimates that there's an 80% chance that berotralstat will win FDA approval based on its positive clinical results. He is also upbeat about BioCryst's oral factor D inhibitor, BCX9930. The drugmaker initiated a proof-of-concept clinical trial in March evaluating the drug in treating paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria. Is Wolleben's optimism justified? Probably so. Around 85% of drugs that successfully complete phase 3 testing go on to win FDA approval, based on historical data analyzed by biopharmaceutical industry trade organization BIO. If approved, berotralstat could generate peak annual sales of more than $500 million, which would likely make the JMP Securities price target of $11 per share attainable. Now what The key thing to watch now with this biotech stock will be the FDA's decision on berotralstat. BioCryst also awaits European approval of the drug, which is expected in early 2021. 10 stocks we like better than BioCryst PharmaceuticalsWhen investing geniuses David and Tom Gardner have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has tripled the market.* David and Tom just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to buy right now... and BioCryst Pharmaceuticals wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think these 10 stocks are even better buys. See the 10 stocks *Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2020 Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.Source